: Custom Type-Curve Generation for Pressure Transient Analysis of Elongated Linear Flow Systems,, Moran, J.H., and Finklea, E.E. Conclusion. " Timing your technology " means stop spending your ti me too much on technology but rather focus on some important things in your life . She has since been appointed to the Albert B. Stevens Endowed Chair in Petroleum Engineering at Texas A&M U. Ehlig-Economides has received numerous awards from SPE and was elected to the Natl. Timing, we believe, is an art. Total page count over 20. and err again So how could we find the treasure thats hiding in plain sight? Those were hard binding limits, and to solve them by creating tiny high-resolution LED/LCD screens for smartphones, required the benefit of decades of Moores law and the experience curve effects of manufacturing billions of smartphones. Starting a new pastime such as playing tennis, learning to paint, riding a horse, or listening to new types of music can provide a fun opportunity to reflect on what and how you are thinking and learning. Freeman Dyson, Freeman Dysons Brain 1998 (cf. It seems a reasonable guess that the bottleneck will never again lie in hardware speeds and storage capacities, as opposed to purely logical and programming problems. It sounds like Facebook! Pity the Scientist Who Discovers the Discovered, ignoring both mail order & Internet all the way until bankruptcy in 2010, eBay sellers like us so much theyre making their own promotional materials, The most successful people I know believe in themselves almost to the point of delusion, Why did we wait so long for the bicycle?, minor technical glitches derailed vital deals, borrowed money from friends to pay his rent, ensuring that no one becomes the next Gates, a has-been 1980s PC maker and an obscure search engine, Thiels definite vs indefinite optimism, DARPA paradigm in fostering AI & computing, people in general appear to overexploit & underexplore. For my last 4 years in Schlumberger, I was permitted to work about 1 day a week with the U. of Houston, where I was appointed Director of the Petroleum Engineering Program. Yet both of these can be enablers for competitive advantage. She recently became Director of the Center for Energy, Environment, and Transportation Innovation in the Crisman Inst. By and large, oil has only two purposes. Meaning to say the development of technology should have proper timing. Bitcoin is a topical example: its still in the early stages where it looks either like a genius stroke to invest in, or a fools paradise/Ponzi scheme. Want to read all 2 pages? And there were plenty of lucrative search engine founders (is Jerry Yang still a billionaire? Indeed, its inherent in really transformative ideas that they look like bad ideasGoogle, Apple, Facebook and Amazon all did, sometimes several times over. 64), The changing structure of American innovation: Some cautionary remarks for economic growth, deterministic schedule posterior sampling reinforcement learning (DS-PRL), Facebook: the world needs yet another MySpace or Friendster [or. The problem with timing is that every innovation only has a relatively small window of opportunity that happens when the technology and customers are ready, but there isn't much entrenched competition. There are some benefits and advantages associated or linked to having a day that is without the use of any technology. Researchers in general have no incentive to say, this is not the right time, wait another 20 years for Moores law to make it doable, even if everyone in the field is perfectly aware of thisPalmer Luckey: I spent a huge amount of time readingI think that there were a lot of people that were giving VR too much credit, because they were working as VR researchers. In a human setting, it might be polarizing in the sense of human peer-reviewers arguing the most about it, or having the least inter-rater agreement or highest variance of ratings. Part of the explanation is survivorship bias causing hindsight bias. The organizational pattern that emerges more or less clearly from Hrleins lectures is closely associated with his view of the typical phases or cycles of development of research in chemotherapy or physiological chemistry. After 7 of my 20 years with Schlumberger, I left transient-test analysis for several other pursuits, and as before, my timing continued to be great. Issues like component cost were not something that could be solved by a VR research project, no matter how ambitious. First of all, you'd wake up late because your smartphone alarm no longer exists. Origins of Innovation: Bakewell & Breeding, Build something people want is not enough, The Psychology of Entrepreneurial Misjudgment, part 1: Biases16, Resistant protocols: How decentralization evolves, Technological convergence in drug discovery and other endeavors, Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact, Large teams develop and small teams disrupt science and technology, How DFS, poker, basketball, Starcraft and strong opinions, weakly held (SOWH) can help your startup, An Attempt at Explaining, Blaming, and Being Very Slightly Sympathetic Toward Enron, How Bubbles and Megaprojects Parallelize Innovation, Market Research, Wireframing, and Design, Spend twice as much effort every time you attempt to solve a problem, Why didnt electricity immediately change manufacturing? If you concentrate you might be able to identify where some of the late reflections come from. QR code? Start a hobby. Through consolidation and failure, 3 emerged on top, 2 of which went bankrupt. Well: researchers have a slight conflict of interest in the matter, and are happy to spend arbitrary amounts of money on topics without anything to show for it. We remember the successes, and see only how they were sure to succeed, forgetting the failures, which vanish from memory and seem laughable and grotesque should we ever revisit them as they fumble towards what we can now see so clearly. He had to publicize the companys successesa necessity for what was ultimately a commercial enterpriseand act as liaison between company laboratories and the academic and medical communities. They grew fast, roflstomped other social networks, stayed private, and post-IPO, public investors have not profited all that much compared to even late investors. God's timing is perfect, it's true; His ways are higher, beyond our view. BOYDEN: One way to think of it is that, if a scientific topic is really popular and everybodys doing it, then I dont need to be part of that. Verify whether or not your instructor specified a word count for the paper instead of merely following this average. They were correct, but many of them would be surprised & disappointed how long it took., #326, Part II. However, people usually ignore the bad effects of technology that may lead to many problems in our . The flowmeter did have a place in transient testing, though, but during drawdown, not buildup. But it was left to Eckert and Mauchly [16] several years later to rediscover and implement the conceptions of stored programs and conditional jumps, which had already been present in Babbages analytical engine [17]. Progress, then, depends on the unreasonable man. When minimum and maximum score are included in the same model, the coefficient on minimum score disappears. Dont ask Fisher, hes hardly going to say, oh yeah, all the money was completely wasted, we were trying to do it too soon; our bad. Kafkas idiosyncrasy is present in each of these writings, to a greater or lesser degree, but if Kafka had not written, we would not perceive it; that is to say, it would not exist. The aim of the study is to evaluate the effects of sports, sports education, technological uses, and their effects on sports education. Many of these models may require transients much too long to be practical in a well test, but may be quite effective for analysis of production data (Fig. They said, Current VR gear is low field of view, high lag, too expensive, too heavy, cant be driven properly from consumer-grade computers, or even professional-grade computers. It turned out that I wasnt the first person to realize these problems. In fact, timing is a science. I read a lot of things that might be forgotten because I think that theres a lot of treasure hiding in plain sight. I loved modeling flow through porous media, and I thought modeling three phases instead of just water would be even more interesting. Just knowing that single trajectory of Moores, and none other, we would have educated differently, invested differently, prepared more wisely to grasp the amazing powers it would sprout. Technology can be the knowledge of techniques, processes, and the like, or it can be embedded in machines which can be operated without detailed knowledge of their workings. Richard Hamming describes ripe time as finally enabling attacks on consequential problems22 Edward Boyden describes the development of both optogenetics & expansion microscopy as failure rebooting, revisiting (failed) past ideas which may now be workable in the light of progress in other areas23. Hrleins efforts to translate success in certain areas (vitamin deficiency disease, chemotherapy of protozoal infections) into optimism about possibilities in other areas (cancer, antibacterial chemotherapy) was characteristic. If Blockbusters CEO had paid a pittance ~2000 to acquihire Netflix & put Reed Hastings in charge, or if it had simply stuck with its CEO in 2007 to strangle Netflix with Total Access, its shareholders would be far better off now. The only time my timing was bad was when I requested a transfer to Venezuela to start up a reservoir-modeling consulting group in time to see the oil price plummet in 1997. within the environment where learning is taking place). 3). The aim of this study was to investigate the practice and timing self-reflection by primary schools teachers, with the aim of encouraging the use of self-reflection to improve teacher's practice. During that time, I became interested in the notion that petroleum engineers might be better educated with a broader scope, what I would call energy engineering. Yet, how useful would this knowledge be, really? Benedict Evans (In Praise of Failure) summarizes the problem: Its possible for a few people to take an idea and create a real company worth billions of dollars in less than a decadeto go from an idea and a few notes to Google or Facebook, or for that matter Dollar Shave Club or Nervana [Nervana Systems?]. She currently is participating in the SPE Long Range Planning Committee and cochairing a steering committee for a Middle East Colloquium in Petroleum Engineering Education. In this edition, we are reminded that rigorous technical work is one of the pillars of our industry. This presents a conflict between personal and social incentives. Again, self reflection is not about building your "best life", it's about figuring out what type of person you want to become. Embed reflection into existing scheduled meetings. Lawrence Shepp (attributed; Pity the Scientist Who Discovers the Discovered). Technology now is considered as a subject and profession in the learning and career environment. The timing software figures out what race number the ID corresponds to and adds a timestamp for that race number. And will she walk through walls when the going gets toughwhich it inevitably will in nearly all startupsand simply refuse to even consider quitting? Every Monday, they required Federal Express to prepay for the anticipated weekly usage of jet fuel. In the hypothetical that you didnt know the name of the company, you mightve bought up a bunch of Google stock hoping that Orkut would be the winner, but while that wouldve been a decent investment (yay!) There were 272 automobile companies in 1909. She has also worked in industry for Schlumberger. Future research on the equifinal configurations we proposebroad/nonselective for early movers and narrow/selective for late moverscould thus help resolve the debate about the link between timing and performance. No, and not even later, as demonstrated by Orkut and Friendster, and the lingering death of MySpace. We should not stand alone in our industry, as Economides reminds us, but learn equally from others. You however know what ignorance can trigger and how to deal with ignorance and purpose. The electric incandescent lightbulb was invented, reinvented, coinvented, or first invented dozens of times. Facebook is the biggest archive of photographs there has ever been, with truly colossal storage requirements; could it have succeeded in the 1990s? AI researcher Donald Michie, claimed in 1970, based on a 1969 poll, that a majority of AI researchers estimated 10100 years for AGI (or 19792069) and that There is also fair agreement that the chief obstacles are not hardware limitations.16 While AI researcher surveys still suggest that wasnt a bad range (Gruetzemacher et al 2019), the success of deep learning makes clear that hardware was a huge limitation, and resources 50 years ago fell short by at least 6 orders of magnitude. Use Answer Strategies. This has historically been less typical in the venture world, but, increasingly, as entrepreneurs take on more established industriesparticularly those that are regulatedbringing a view of the market that is unconstrained by previous professional experiences may in fact be a plus. It may be easier said than done, but one of the biggest factors in taking time to reflect should be stillness and, if possible, solitude. More importantly, he showed me what differentiated quartz-gauge data looked like. But just by trial and error, we found out how to do it, and the error was essential. why should a podcasting company, Odeo, have led to Twitter? Enough progress in one domain (particularly computing power), can sometimes make up for stasis in another domain. The third big area of team investigation for VCs focuses on the founders leadership abilities. Perhaps had Kelleher known intimately of all the challenges of entering the airline business, he would have run screaming from the challenge versus deciding to take on the full set of risks. The next Larry Page or Sergey Brin wont make a search engine. Firefox: we are going to build a better web browser, even though 90% of the worlds computers already have a free one built in. Can you ask researchers if the time is ripe? "They say, timing is everything. 2. The energy business should ensure that the world has the affordable sustainable energy it needs without undue environmental impact. If we think about multi-level optimization systems & population-based training, and optimization of evolution like strong amplifiers (which resemble small but networked communities: Pavlogiannis et al 2018), that would suggest we should have a bias against both large and small groups/institutes/granters, because small ones are buffeted by random noise/drift and cant afford well-powered experiments, but large ones are too narrow-minded.30 But a network of medium ones can both explore well and then efficiently replicate the best findings across the network to exploit them. A place like Bell Labs benefits from remaining in contact with the needs of commerce, as it provides a check on lart pour lart pathologies, a fertile source of problems, and can feed back the benefits of mass production/experience curves. If you knew for certain that Facebook would be as huge as it was, what stocks, exactly, could you have invested in, pre-IPO, to capture gains from its growth? One of the simplest & most efficient MAB solutions, which maximizes the total long-term reward and minimizes regret (opportunity cost), is Thompson sampling & its generalization PSRL28: randomly select each option with a probability equal to the current estimated probability that it is the most profitable option. Although, I have used technology in my classroom before, now I. Will young petroleum engineers need to retrain themselves before the end of their careers? You should start from 6:00 AM until 7:00 PM. The concept behind antireflection technology is to control the light used in an optical device in such a manner that the light rays reflect from surfaces where it is intended and . In recent times, corporate research has diminished, and that may be a bad thing: The changing structure of American innovation: Some cautionary remarks for economic growth, Arora et al 2020., One might appeal to the Kelly criterion as a guide to how much individuals should wager on experiments, since the Kelly criterion gives optimal growth of wealth over the long-term while avoiding gamblers ruin, but given the extremely small number of wagers an individual engages in, with a highly finite horizon, the Kelly criterions assumptions are far from satisfied, and the true optimal strategy can be radically different from a naive Kelly criterion; I explore this difference more in The Kelly Coin-flipping Game, which is motivated by stock-market investing., Thompson sampling, incidentally, has been rediscovered, PSRL (posterior sampling, see also Ghavamzadeh et al 2016) generalizes Thompson sampling to more complex problems, MDPs or POMDPs in general, by for each iteration, assuming an entire collection or distribution of possible environments which are more complex than a single-step bandit, picking an environment at random based on its probability of being the real environment, finding the optimal actions for that one, and then acting on that solution; this does the same thing in smoothly balancing exploration with exploitation. You cant possibly get a good technology going without an enormous number of failures. Then after your special knowledge has become public knowledge, the robotics company goes public, and by EMH, their shares become a normal investment. Pillars of the Industry - Christine Ehlig-Economides reflects on her career and how being in the right place at the right time has made all the difference. There were huge initiatives while there was nothing happening in the US. Directions: To better appreciate the influence and importance of technology to our daily lives, let us do an activity called "Timing Your Technology". There is no convenient CMPTR you can buy 100 shares of and hold indefinitely to capture gains from your optimism about computers. and simple to express: Every authentic solution brings in its wake a train of grotesque solutions. But you know what? Christine Ehlig-Economides received a BA degree from Rice U. in math-science, an MS degree from the U. of Kansas in chemical engineering, and a PhD degree from Stanford U. in petroleum engineering. Let yourself Relax, sit and breathe mindfully, and try to block out any surrounding distractions. With optogenetics, people were trying to control brain cells with light going back to 1971. We do not know what a unicorn is like. As you might imagine, the use of that term in our fund-raising deck for our first fund struck a chord with a number of our potential investors, who worried that we would back insufferable founders. A simple, efficient, and low-cost method is proposed to reduce the timing jitter in passively Q-switched microchip lasers by self-injection seeding. However, technology affects ones thinking capacity and development of ideas. Lets imagine a different scenario, where instead you were confident that home robotics were about to experience a huge growth spurt. Polarizing here could be reflect a wide posterior value distribution, or if the posterior is being approximated by something like a mixture of experts or an ensemble of multiple models (like running multiple passes over a dropout-trained neural network, or a bootstrapped neural network ensemble). I was still commuting to Connecticut on the weekends and really did not know what was going to transpire on my return. Maybe somebody found a new gene. When interviewed many years later about why, despite being a lawyer by training, he was the natural founder for an airline business, Kelleher quipped: I knew nothing about airlines, which I think made me eminently qualified to start one, because what we tried to do at Southwest was get away from the traditional way that airlines had done business.. I think they were just early. Alfred North Whitehead, The Organization of Thought (1917). It connects users to International Business Machines (IBM), UNIX, Linux, Open Virtual Memory System (OpenVMS), and Hewlett Packard (HP) applications from their desktops. Scott et al 2019, McKenzie&Sansone2019). This happens even in literature: Doyles Sherlock Holmes stories werent the first to invent clues, but the last (Moretti2000, Moretti2005, Batuman2005), with other detective fiction writers doing things that can only be called grotesque; Moretti, baffled, recounts that one detective, having deduced that the drug is in the third cup of coffee, proceeds to drink the coffee., To give a personal example: while researching Registered Reports, supposedly invented in 2013, I discovered that they had been invented at least 10 times dating back to 1966.. The auditor who went through the companys books concluded that it was entirely solventwhich isnt surprising, when you consider that the lands it owned in America now produce trillions of dollars in economic value. One could also say the same thing of China: countless European observers forecast that China was a sleeping giant which, once it industrialized & modernized, would again be a global power. 1). We wanted the reflections to be as close to the learning experience as possible, both in terms of the timing of the reflections and where the reflection would take place. Where does this leave us? This will work well for traditional interviews and those stations at the MMI which ask more traditional interview questions. In2012, I watched impressed as my aunt used the iPhone application FaceTime to video chat with her daughter half a continent away. We may want things now, we may want them fast, But God knows best, our future is cast. Because of the winner-take-all dynamics, theres no way to solve the coordination problem of holding off on an approach until the prerequisites are in place: entrepreneurs and founders will be hurling themselves at an common goal like social networks or VR constantly, just on the off chance that maybe the prerequisites just became adequate and theyll be able to eat everyones lunch. The course The ICT course was not really difficult, as I had a very good knowledge about the different types of technologies that were presented, but the idea of adapting them to my classroom got me thinking. There are many ways technology can help teachers see themselves and their practice more clearly. . Building the habit of self reflection can help you build a fulfilling life. Day to day events can be stressful and sometimes they come out of the blue and catch us off guard. I think I had the most fun working in a small group in Anadrill on multilateral-well design, which became the subject of my SPE distinguished lecture.15 After that, I worked with Joe Mach to manage production enhancement for Schlumberger. While we would recommend that managers are setting aside dedicated time to reflect with their teams - even if only on a monthly or quarterly basis - they may also want to consider making time for reflection in existing team meetings. Reflection-in-action "Thinking about what you are doing, while you are doing it." (Schn, 1983) Reflection-in-action happens in what Schn (1983) describes as 'the midst of activity' - in coaching terms this is likely to be during a coaching session or game. Is this impossibly rare? He is the reason I have had the courage and motivation to continue contributing to an industry that has never been all that eager to take women seriously, and I am the reason he became interested in petroleum engineering. We can draw lines on a graph but we dont know the constraints. What he could not door could not do alonewas to direct the day-to-day operations of his troops, that is, to define the critical problems to be solved, to identify the terms of their solution, and to do the work that would carry the day. It wont have cut and paste. In recent years, I have been attracted back to academia. When they began failing in a cluster, information-wise, that was highly redundant. The benefit for someone like DARPA of a forecast like Moores law is that it provides one fixed trend to gauge overall timing to within a decade or so, and look for those dots which have lagged behind and become reverse salients.25 For an entrepreneur, the advantage of exponential thinking is more fatalistic: being able to launch in the window of time between just after technical feasibility but before someone else randomly gives it a try; if wrong and it was always impossible, it doesnt matter when one launches, and if wrong because timing is wrong, ones choice is effectively random and little is lost by delay. All those huge initiatives and? A more practical approach is to embrace uncertainty, taking a reinforcement learning perspective. You should maintain a formal tone, but it is acceptable to write in the first person and to use personal pronouns. The solution to this apparent dilemma starts with the recognition that a business enterprise's value depends on the level and rate of growth of its cash flow. This is true but I would say it reverses the order (N to N+1? The trouble is that people very often resort to all sorts of devices in order not to think, because thinking is such hard work. Thomas John Watson Sr., 18741956. As Goldstein&Kearney2017 describe their analysis of the numerical peer reviewer ratings of DARPA proposals: In other words, ARPA-E PDs tend to fund proposals on which reviewers disagree, given the same mean overall score. The UK Biobank has produced an amazing amount of research for a large group, but is the exception that proves the rule: their openness to researchers is (sadly) extraordinarily unusual. And, incidentally, offering an example of why stock markets are fine with paying executives so much: a good executive can createor destroythe entire company. Under such conditions, we could be in the presence of a unicorn and not know with certainty that it is one.
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